Winning Percentage of Professional Sports Bettors
Professional sport bettors rarely sustain a long-term winning percentage higher than 55 percent, and it's often as low as 53 or 54 percent. To break even, bettors must win 52.4 percent of bets at -110 odds.
Many people think that professional sports bettors—such as Billy Walters or JV Miller—win 60 percent or more of their sports bets. It's understandable that people think this, but the fact is, the difference between the percentage of bets won by successful sports bettors and the percentage of bets won by chronic losers is relatively small. As long as a bettor wins 52.4% of their bets, they will at least break even.
There's always an awkward pause when a non-gambler or a beginner asks, "What percentage of bets do professional bettors win?" It's a less-than-simple question to answer because it can't be answered simply. That, of course, sounds like a cop-out, but the answer to that question really does demand an explanation.
Professional sports bettors rarely sustain a long term winning percentage higher than 55%, and it's often as low as 53 or 54%. People find this hard to believe, but it's true.
Why You Go Broke With a 50% Winning Percentage
We'll ignore money line bets here for the sake of clarity and address only those bets wherein the player must risk as much as 110 to win 100 -- pointspread and over/under bets. Against this type of bet, anyone at all can expect to win 50 percent. After all, the only thing required is to flip a coin and pick a side. The sports book's profit comes from the difference between what a bettor must risk and what a bettor expects to win. Every time a bettor wins, the sports book withholds slightly more than 9 percent of the winnings ($1 for every $11 risked). Consequently, a bettor winning only half his bets will ultimately go broke.
Profit Matters More Than Winning Percentage to Pros
Actually, winning percentage does not matter too much to professional sports bettors. Profit is what matters. If a bettor has five bets on a given day, risking $1100 to win $1000 on each bet, and wins three of them, that's a great winning ratio of 60% and a net profit for the day of $800. (The bettor wins $3000 and loses $2200.) If another bettor has fourteen bets on that same day, risking $1100 to win $1000 on each one, and wins eight of them, that's a lower winning percentage of only 57%, but almost twice as much profit for the day of $1400. (The bettor wins $8000 and loses $6600.)
The second bettor was not necessarily less skilled at picking winners than the first bettor; the second bettor may simply have chosen to apply all his advantages - including those which had less than a 60% chance of winning in the first place. If the ultimate goal is to make money, it is obvious which of the two bettors was more successful. The real goal is, of course, to make money. The measure of success of a sports bettor is not his percentage of winning bets, but the relative amount of profit he makes over any given period of time.
Although there are, indeed, propositions that offer more than a 60% expectation of winning, such propositions are relatively few and far between, and are only a very small part of the overall picture. With the break-even point at about 53%, genuine professional bettors know there is no tenable excuse to pass up propositions offering expectations of higher than, say, 55%. A small advantage applied over and over is awesomely effective. Mathematicians will confirm that a profit is more assured from a group of 200 bets with a 55% expectation-per-bet than from a group of 50 bets with a 60% expectation-per-bet. In other words, the more bets placed, the more predictable the outcome. (See our article, Money Management: Surviving the Brutal Math.)
The Importance of Volume of Bets
That, too, is one of the facts of life of which successful bettors must be familiar. It's a basic principle of math: the more bets you are able to place, the more likely it is that your winning percentage will be close to your expectations. A pro bettor must be more concerned with profit than with establishing a great winning percentage, and those two conditions are not always compatible. A real pro applies all his advantages as often as possible, not only the best of his advantages when they occasionally arise.
To illustrate the point, consider casino craps. The house has less than a 51% winning expectation against a pass line bet at craps, yet casinos advertise their craps games on signs 100 feet tall. Casino executives know that if they can get enough players to make enough bets they will end the day with approximately the percentage of profit expected. They also know that the fewer bets placed, the less predictable the percentage of winning bets. Can you imagine a casino wanting to limit the number of times you throw the dice?
When risking 110 to win 100, it is best to use no more than 2% of your bankroll per bet -- and pull the trigger whenever you feel you have at least a 55% expectation of winning. Professional bettors tend to have a lot of bets compared to non-professionals. A bettor is more assured of achieving his expected win percentage over a larger total number of bets, and with more bets and smaller bet sizes, the 'ride' is much smoother, less risky and more predictable.
A Bet Size of 2% is Optimal
Generally speaking, non-professionals go wrong by risking too much of their bankroll on individual bets. They don't spread their risk thin enough over a big enough number of bets. Professionals use smaller bet sizes in proportion to their bankroll over larger numbers of bets.
As a matter of fact, one good way to spot a non-pro is that he often has fewer than a half-dozen bets per week, and he risks more than two percent of his bankroll on each bet.
If you're a part-timer with a wad of mad money to risk, it may be okay to risk 4 or 5% of your bankroll on a single bet, but don't expect to play that way for long. Sooner or later, such poor money management will annihilate you. To quote from our book, How Professional Gamblers Beat The Pro Football Pointspread, the population of bad handicappers in Tap City is dwarfed by the population of bad money managers.
Most genuine professional-level sports bettors would never risk more than two percent of their working bankroll on any single bet.
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