7 Myths About Sports Betting That You Wrongly Believe
By JV Miller
jv@professionalgambler.org
#7
"Losers pay the vig.”
Wrong. Winners pay vigorish—all of it. Losing bettors actually play for free. Vigorish is deducted from winnings. Here's how it works: Say two bettors each risk $110 with the same bookmaker on opposite sides of the same proposition. Each bettor is trying to win $100. The bookmaker receives a total of $220 from the two bettors. One bettor wins, one bettor loses, and the winner picks up a total of $210 (the $110 he put at risk, plus his $100 in winnings.) That leaves the bookmaker with $10 gross profit as his vigorish on the deal. The bookmaker kept $10 of the $220 total amount risked.
Had the two bettors each risked $110 against the other without using the services of the bookmaker, the winner would have walked away with $220 instead of $210. (The amount risked by each bettor was $110; not $100.) Who paid the bookmaker? The winner paid the entire vig. The loser - since he lost the bet - would have lost whatever he put at risk, with or without the services of the bookmaker. The winnings, which would have been $110 without using the services of the bookmaker, were shorted by ten dollars or 9.1 percent. Check our free articles: Winning Percentage of Pro Sports Gamblers and A Crash Course in Vigorish
#6
“Vigorish is 10 percent”
Wrong again. Vigorish is 9.1 percent. When you lay 110 to win 100, that’s 9.1 percent. For the vig to be 10 percent, you would lay 100 to win 90. Check our free article: Bad Math in Back Alleys: Why Sports Betting Odds are So Convoluted
#5
“The point spread is the sports books' opinion of which team will win and by how much."
Absolutely not. Don't get us wrong, the sports books certainly have an opinion about which team will win and by how much, but they're not telling you. Point spreads are tools used by sports books to influence, drive and manipulate betting action. Generally, most sports books, most of the time, are aiming for action that is as balanced as possible. The point spread aids in achieving this.
Sports Betting Variance Simulator
We created this free interactive demonstration showing how both winning and losing streaks are mathematically inevitable, even with profitable win rates. This is a great educational tool for sports bettors who might panic during normal variance.
Even with a 55% win rate (which would be quite profitable over a year), bettors will consistently see losing streaks of 5, 6, 7+ losses in a row.
Each click generates a new random year, so visitors can run it multiple times to see how common these streaks really are.
Sports Betting Variance Simulator
See how losing streaks occur naturally, even with a 55% win rate over 365 bets
#4
“A 3-leg parlay carries more Vigorish than three individual straight bets.”
Nope. A 3-leg parlay works out to less vig than three straight bets at -110. Here’s the proof: Eight possible outcomes are possible with any three sports bets: WWW, WWL, WLW, LWW, WLL, LWL, LLW, and LLL.
Let’s say eight bettors make a 3-leg parlay bet on one of the possible outcomes, exhausting all eight possible outcomes. Risking $100 to win $600 (3-leg parlay pays 6 to 1), seven bettors will lose their $100 stake and one better will win $600. The sports book pays the winning bettor $700: the $100 originally staked and $600 in winnings. The remaining $100 is profit for the sports book. This is where most bettors go wrong when figuring the sports book’s profit. They assume that since $100 is 12.5% of $800, that’s the vigorish—a whopping 12.5%. This is wrong. A 3-bet parlay is a series of 3 bets—not one bet. When the first leg wins, the bettor re-invests all the winnings in betting the second leg. When the second leg wins, the bettor re-invests all the winnings in betting the third leg:
$100 X 1.91 = $191
$191 X 1.91 = $365
$365 X 1.91 = $697
The bettor won a total of $597. Over three bets, the bettor risked a lot more than $100. The bettor risked $656 on all three wagers to win a profit of $597. This is slightly less vig than risking $100 on three straight bets at -110. Check our free video: Profiting From Parlays
#3
“Sports betting is not legal in every state and the minimum age to bet on sports is twenty-one years old.”
Incorrect. And incorrect again. While conventional sports books are not legal in all fifty states, sports betting is perfectly legal anywhere in the USA via prediction market companies like Kalshi.com, Robinhood.com and Crypto.com.
Most places require a bettor to be at least twenty-one years of age to bet on sports. However, in Wyoming, the minimum age to bet on sports is eighteen years of age.
#2
“All offshore sports books are not to be trusted because they are fly-by-night operations who can steal your money without you having any recourse.”
Maybe most but not all. The oldest and biggest sports books in the world are located offshore. These corporations employ thousands of people and gross multiple times the revenue of their USA counterparts. Costa Rica is the sports book capital of the world with hundreds of sports books. Antigua, Curacao, Panama and other countries are also home to well-known sports books. Do your research and make sure you do business with one of the legitimate ones.
If you have a dispute with an offshore sports book that you are not able to resolve, your recourse is the same as with any USA sports book. The USA is not the only place in the world with small claims court.
#1
“The Kelly Criterion is a money management system used by most sharp bettors because it optimizes bet size.”
Sorry, but no. Ever wonder why you never met a rich Kelly bettor? The Kelly Criterion—jokingly referred to as the "Kamikaze criterion"— is a mathematical theorem that doesn’t work with sports betting. The Kelly Criterion may be functional in other applications, but not sports-betting. The reason is the Kelly Criterion requires accurate inputs that sports bettors have no way of knowing. When you don’t know the inputs at the beginning of the formula, it's garbage in, garbage out. (See our free article Debunking the Kelly Criterion.)
About the Author:
JV Miller is widely regarded as one of the world’s top professional sports bettors and handicappers. JV is a frequent expert contributor on national television and has penned op-eds for prestigious publications such as USA Today. A second-generation sports bettor, JV Miller is the son of J.R. Miller, the legendary sports bettor and author who wrote the best-selling book How Professional Gamblers Beat the Pro Football Point Spread.
The Miller family’s roots in sports betting trace back to the 1970s when they arrived in Las Vegas as industry trailblazers. This website was launched in 1997 and is the first sports handicapping website in history. As publisher of Professional Gambler Newsletter, JV is trusted by more professional and high-stakes sports betting clients than any other handicapping service worldwide.
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