Is Your Sports Handicapper a Phony?
Unfortunately, the answer probably is yes.
According to a USA Today report, it is estimated that 9 out of 10 sports handicappers advertising their services online are -- for lack of better words -- phonies. Since the U. S. Supreme Court decriminalized sports betting in 2018, the industry has become inundated with phonies.
Many of today's "sports handicappers" are not seasoned experts in the complex business of sports wagering, but rather "affiliates" of sports book schemes designed to bamboozle as much of your money as fast as possible. In exchange for referring you to certain sports books via links on their website or in an email message, phony handicappers are paid by the sports books a percentage of your gambling losses for as long as the account is open. And they do not dislcose this scandalous relationship up front, so the sports bettor is left to believe the phony handicapper is looking out for the bettor's best interests. Conflict of interest much? Don't they advertise "winning" picks? (Actually some don't. Take a closer look. Many advertise "exciting" or "hot" picks.)
The worst part about this is the cost of losing the bets is usually much more devastating than the cost of the picks.
There are generally three kinds of sports handicapping phonies: the con artist, the wolf in sheep's clothing, and the well-intentioned wanna-be. (Note, phonies can be more than one.)
First, many phony sports handicappers are plain old con artists. They can make a quick buck by lying about their identity and pretending to be qualfied at something they know little about. Think: "bad used car salesman." Many are what we call "touts." These guys/gals show up on television, in podcasts, via text message, in emails and even telemarketing phone calls screaming about "locks" and "guaranteed winnings." They make outrageously false claims of impossible winning percentages and enormous profit. They engage in trickery -- like selling both sides of plays (picking team A to half of their customers and picking team B to the other half, so they can target the winning half with the old sales pitch: see, I know what I'm talking about! And then repeating the process.) They are marketing geniuses and know how to build websites and run marketing and branding campaigns. They may be located in the USA, but often are actually in India, China or a variety of countries in Africa. Their true expertise is in appearing legitimate. Just a little scratching of the surface reveals their true motives and identity. YOU must scratch the surface to find out.
Second, when agents of sports books pose as sports handicappers in an effort to recruit sports bettors, they are wolves in sheep's clothing. They aim to gain the trust of sports bettors just so they can penetrate their inner circle and influence their decision making. Initially their objective is to get the bettor to open an account at their sports book; next, they give the bettor losing picks and predictions and encourage harmful money management practices (like the one-star, two-star, three-star betting system). Overall, the goal is to extract every last penny from the the sports bettor while exposing the sports book to as little risk as possible. Not only do these phonies refuse to disclose to sports bettors who they really are and for whom they work, they jump through hoops to conceal their true interests. Rather than disclose that their interests lie polar opposite of bettors', these phonies pretend to be a bettor's advocate and a resource. They launch fancy websites and produce podcasts to give the appearance of legitimacy. They are paid a fee of up to 40% of the gambling losses of the bettor. This is called a sports book "affiliate program." The booming sports book affiliate business consists of thousands of these phonies on the payroll of the sports books. In fact, it is estimated that 7 out of 10 sports book customers originate in this fashion. The worst kind of phony, these frauds have little to no experience handicapping sports, let alone an expert-level of knowledge that one would expect if they sold their knowledge to others.
The third kind of sports betting phony is the well-intentioned wanna-be. Usually not even old enough to rent a car, these pests often reside in their parents' basement. They want to possess valuable knowledge worthy of selling to others pertaining to how to beat the bookmaker, but they cannot seem to break the death grip of a 50% winning percentage. Sometimes these pseudo experts mean well and just want a career as a real sports handicapper. However, like the others, they lie about their winning percentage and how much they make for themselves and others. Too lazy for college and uninterested in an entry-level position or some other job for which they are qualified, these corner-cutters want -- and expect -- something for nothing at your expense.
One who sells predictions and holds oneself out to be an expert in sports betting without any training or experience is either too dishonest or too stupid to be worthy of your confidence and business. If they attempted this with medical advice, insurance advice or real estate advice, they would go to jail. These are not "entrepreneurs" opening legitimate small businesses as part of the American dream, they are opportunists just like the other phonies who spot a system they think they can beat. Like the other two types of phonies, they know a lot about digital graphics and website design. However, they apparently do not opt to apply their knowledge in a legal setting for a real employer. They are usually avid sports fans with the gift of gab. They have a firm grasp on what is trending, social media and trivial sports-related information (like who can dunk from the farthest distance). However, when it comes to showing a profit at the end of the day...their parents can only wish.
If you're wondering, "is my handicapper a phony?" -- do not fret. So that you do not fall victim, here are three key ways to know if, in fact, your handicapper is a phony.
- Look out for promotions and affiliations with sportsbooks.
If you see any mention of sportsbooks within their materials or ads on their websites and apps, consider it a PHONY ALERT. Rather than have your back, chances are your handicapper is stabbing you in it.
Simply put, where you place your bets is none of your sports handicapper's business. You stand to gain nothing by sharing that information.
Beware of so-called "reviews" that seem objective but are simply a way for phonies to disguise their relationship with sports books. Any lack of transparency should raise red flags.
- Be skeptical of wild claims about their success rate and past winnings.
Phony sports handicappers often make wild and unbelievable claims about past performance. Trustworthy sports handicappers should post the results of their picks daily on their website to maintain transparency and accountability. For example, check out JV Miller's Track Us page for a genuine display of results.
- Conduct a Google search of their name to find out more about their credibility.
Some phonies use fake names, even adopting cartoon or superhero aliases like "Money Monster." Real professionals, on the other hand, are more likely to use their real names and addresses like any other normal company you do business with. Real professionals will likely spotlight articles they've written or awards they've received. Evaluating how they are viewed by their peers can give you valuable insight into their legitimacy.
By utilizing the above three suggestions, you should be able to determine if your sports handicapper just might be a phony. At the least, you should be able to better protect yourself from falling prey to phony sports handicappers and make more informed decisions when seeking legitimate and reliable sports handicapping services.
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