How to Beat NFL Preseason

Shifting Perspectives: Preseason vs. Regular Season   Preseason games are fundamentally distinct from regular-season matchups. Coaches use this time to fine-tune their teams, identify weaknesses, and experiment with different strategies. As a result, traditional handicapping methods employed in regular-season betting might not be effective. We must explore the specific motivations behind preseason coaching decisions and how it impacts betting strategies.

Many sports bettors pass when it comes to betting NFL preseason games. They've done battle with preseason games before and had their backsides handed to them. One prevalent reason is, they used the same handicapping methods against exhibition games than they use against regular season games.

That won't work. An exhibition game is an entirely different animal, and it demands an entirely different mindset with an entirely different perspective. For anyone trying to handicap exhibition games the same way as 'real' games, passing preseason is good advice.

That fact makes all the difference to handicapping preseason games. Think about it: The purpose of preseason, after all, is to practice; - to make improvements, to fix weak spots. It's a time for the head coach to work on his team's worst features. After all, why would a coach use this special time to work on his strongest stuff? Doesn't it make sense that he figures to concentrate on what he thinks needs the most work? Isn't that what you'd do if you were a coach? Wouldn't you try to fix your weaknesses, try to get ready for the 'real' action to come? A coach's new contract will not be based on how many practice games he wins. Who cares? The only thing that really counts is how many 'real' games he wins during the regular season.

As a matter of fact, it could often be a good idea for a coach to avoid using his team's best stuff during exhibition season. After all, why tip the enemy to what the team does well?

Leveraging Last Year's Stats with a New Purpose   While past statistics can guide regular-season betting, their application changes when it comes to preseason games. Instead of focusing on a team's strengths, we must interpret last year's stats to understand what aspects the team needs to improve. By identifying the areas a team wants to work on, you can better predict their strategies in exhibition games.

During preseason, it can help if you have stats from last year, alright, but not for the same reason stats are used during regular season. Last year's stats can show you what a team needs in order to improve. Last year's worst running teams, for example, are very likely to do a lot of running during this year's preseason; last year's worst passing teams are very likely to do a lot of passing. If a team's offensive line let them down last year, we can expect a lot of personnel shifting and experimenting on the offensive line. If their deep pass defense was shaky last year, look for a lot of new ideas and new players in their secondary. If they had trouble stopping a rushing game last year, look for new people on the defensive line, or even new styles of defense. Just as important, teams with last year's best offensive lines don't figure to overwork their first-string linemen in an exhibition game. Why do that? If their starting linemen are more-or-less predetermined, why would a coach risk undue injury to those locked-in starters? Isn't it smarter to develop depth by playing backup players? If a team's passing attack got them into the playoffs last year, why risk injury to their predetermined receivers? If you were a coach, would you really make your zillion-dollar wide receiver play a whole practice game?

Recognizing Value in Unique Situations   Preseason games present various scenarios that offer value to bettors. We must delve into specific circumstances, such as teams shopping for new offensive linemen or backup quarterbacks vying for starting positions. Understanding these situations can give you a strategic advantage and increase your chances of making successful bets.

One excellent proposition happens when a coach must decide between two potential starting quarterbacks. In order to compare the two candidates the coach is likely to use all his first string offense during most of the game, - including his best receivers, best running backs, and best offensive linemen. You can also figure both quarterbacks want that starting job, so both are likely to play their best behind that first string. And that particular  situation is intensified if the other team is - strangely enough - an extra good defensive team! An opposing team with locked-in starters on their defense is very likely to be auditioning new defensive talent. After a brief 'tune-up' period for his defensive starters, the opposing coach is likely to pull his 'A' players. That leaves a bunch of try-out defensive players facing a first-string offense and a hungry talented quarterback. The correct play in such a situation could hardly be more obvious, once you understand what to look for; once you understand the motives of the respective coaches.

...And it's also obvious that last year's stats must be interpreted with care in the above situation.