FLAT BETTING BOMBSHELL: Changing Bet Size Raises Break-Even Percentage!
There was already ample reason to refrain from jiggling the bet size. Now, the issue should be settled for good.
By: JV Miller | Professional Sports Bettor and Publisher, ProfessionalGambler.org
In this article, we uncover what is likely the biggest indicator yet that flat betting is superior to other bet sizing concepts that require the bettor to constantly jiggle the size of the bet.
This is big news for the sports betting business.
And now for the big reveal...
The Break-Even of 52.38% GOES UP When You Don't Flat Bet
Sounds crazy?
Yes, it is true. Only when you flat bet—as in, the exact same dollar amount on all bets—does your break-even percentage work out to be 52.38%
If you fiddle with the size of your wagers, no matter how slightly, your break-even percentage goes up.
This means, simply put, jigglers and fiddlers do not make as much money as flat bettors doing the exact same thing. If a sports bettor who tinkers with the bet size makes the exact same wagers at the exact same odds as a sports bettor who flat bets, the flat bettor will make more money.
This is a fact.
It's Not Just the Odds That Determine Break-Even Percentage
Most sports bettors can understand why the break-even percentage would be affected by the odds, but the bet sizing? It's true.
Who would have thought that keeping your bet size the same would have any impact at all on the break-even percentage?
It turns out, those bettors who constantly tweak the size of their wagers do not have a break-even percentage of 52.38%. It's higher. Sometimes by a whopping degree.
Despite what sports bettors are told, it is not accurate to state the break-even percentage is dictated only by the odds. We are told, for instance, at -110 odds, the break-even percentage is 52.38%; at -120 odds, the break-even percentage rises to 54.54%; and so on. (Check out the handy tool we created below that computes break-even percentage among many other helpful calculations.)
In reality, come to find out, those percentages only apply when the bets are flat. The actual break-even percentage for dynamic-sized bets is higher—sometimes substantially so.
For more information about bet sizing and the break-even percentage, check out our free article Sports Betting Money Management: Professional Bankroll & Staking Strategies.
Keep reading, we prove this below.
Here's Where We Prove It
We wouldn't say it if we couldn't prove it. I mean, come on... we're the ones who publish results to all selections, win or lose, at our Track Us page, after we email them to the Las Vegas Review-Journal before game time so nobody can question our winning record.
The following simulation proves the break-even percentage is higher when you change the bet size:
Start with a $10,000 bankroll and make exactly 21 wagers at -110. You win 11 and lose 10. That's a winning percentage of exactly 52.38%:
11 ÷ 21 = 52.38%
That number should look familiar. At -110, 52.38% is the commonly-quoted break-even percentage.
Now we'll run the exact same 21 results through two different staking methods.
Bettor A: Flat $200 wagers
Bettor A risks exactly $200 on every wager. Ten losing wagers cost him:
10 × $200 = $2,000
Eleven winning wagers at -110 earn:
11 × $181.818... = $2,000
He started with $10,000. He finishes with $10,000. Exactly what we expected. He won 52.38% of his bets and broke even.
Bettor B: Jiggles Bet Size, Recalculates 2% after every wager
Bettor B also starts with $10,000 and makes the exact same selections. His first wager is also $200. But after every wager, he recalculates his next bet to equal 2% of his new bankroll.
Following a win, and his next wager gets slightly larger. Following a loss, and his next wager gets slightly smaller.
It looks similar to flat betting. The wager amount is close to $200 throughout the entire experiment. But after the same 21 wagers—the same 11 wins, the same 10 losses and the same -110 odds—Bettor B finishes with approximately:
$9,961.84
He lost money! Where did the $38.16 go? The sports book ends up with it.
The same multiplicative effect is quietly operating every time Bettor B changes his stake according to his current bankroll. After losses, he has less capital working for him on subsequent wins. After wins, he has more capital exposed to subsequent losses.
The order of the wins and losses doesn't save you. You can line the wins and losses up in any order you want, it does not change the outcome.
See the image of the simulation below.
The Kelly Criterion, One-Star Two-Star Betting system, Martingale system, d'Alembert system, Labouchere system, Paroli system, Fibonacci system and others all have one thing in common: they require that you constantly change the size of your bets
Follow the Money
Always ask yourself, who benefits from this situation? When sports bettors are wrongly informed about their break-even percentage, which results in them losing more money—faster—who benefits? Where does the money end up?
Is this simply a naturally occurring, independent misunderstanding that results in an innocent transfer of money from millions of sports bettors into the coffers of the sports books? Just a glitch that happened to go the sports books' way?
Or, are you inclined to believe something more nefarious could be behind these mysterious betting systems that are very convincing yet difficult to disprove.
To know exactly how much to bet and on what and when, check out our free article on our popular Miller Flat Betting System.
You will also find very helpful our free article Binomial Distribution in Sports Betting: Variance, Streaks & Probability.
In any event, follow the money. Good luck.