Point Spreads Hijacking College Sports: Data Reveals Athletes Playing to Vegas Lines
Our research indicates pointspreads and money lines are influencing game outcomes
While visiting a university recently, a colleague overheard a college football player say to a group of teammates: “The line just came out for our game this weekend -- we’re going to win by ten points!” High-fives and hurrahs followed. This casual exchange reveals the pervasive influence of sports betting on the psyche of athletes. This jeopardizes the integrity of college athletics and the sports betting industry.
In recent years, the proliferation of legalized sports betting has permeated every aspect of our lives. As a result of the widespread promotion of sports books via television, radio and streaming platforms, college athletes find themselves immersed in a culture where the point spread is everywhere.
Unlike in the past, every college athlete is now cognizant of the point spread before they step onto the field or court, which subtly alters their approach to the game. Are athletes unknowingly and subconsciously playing to match the expectations set by the point spread?
As a sports betting analyst, my team discovered a shocking trend: since the decriminalization of sports betting in 2018, final outcomes to college football and basketball games mirror much more closely the point spread set by the oddsmakers.
The good news is that a solution may be within reach, but it starts with something that is already a touchy subject on college campuses: discussing and educating students on the mechanics of sports betting.
Most likely, the clarification of one of the biggest misconceptions about the business of sports betting would improve matters significantly. Contrary to popular belief, the point spread – also known as the “Vegas line” -- is not an expert prediction of who will win and by how much. The point spread is merely a number set by oddsmakers to encourage betting action on both sides evenly. The point spread prevents a disproportionate number of bets coming in on either side of a wager, which would subject the sports book to risk. Sports books are not in business to gamble. They simply charge a fee for holding the money.
When athletes and coaches grasp that oddsmakers create point spreads to balance betting action rather than predict outcomes, they hopefully will be less inclined to inadvertently allow this interference.
Most college athletic departments understandably shy away from discussing sports betting topics, but a paradigm shift is required. Athletic departments must proactively educate athletes and coaches about the nuances of point spreads. Armed with this knowledge, athletes and coaches can approach the game with a clearer perspective, mitigating the unintentional influence of sports betting on their performance.
* We excluded statistics from the year 2020 entirely due to Covid, as the irregularites were deemed outliers.
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