Sports Betting Money Management: Your Path to Long-Term Success

Notice that although a result of 12-9 is the most likely of all outcomes, a result of precisely 12-9 will occur only slightly more than 11% of the time. That's only about one time in nine. In real life, you can figure on a record of something other than 12-9 about eight out of nine times.

With a 55% expectation-per-bet, you can plan on making any profit at all only about 60% of the time over your next 21 bets. In 4 out of 10 cases, you can expect to win less than twelve out of 21 bets.

Even with a 55% winning expectation on every bet, you must be aware that it is just as easy to go 7-14 (or worse!) as it is to go 17-4 or better.

Once in about 7 times you can expect to lose 13 or more of your next 21 bets. By understanding the consequences of the probabilities involved, you can avoid the  disastrous results of using such nonsensical money  management traps as the so-called 'Kelly criterion' or the suicidal 'one-star, two-star, three-star' nonsense, or some other progressive betting schemes.

In our book, How Professional Gamblers Beat The Pro Football Pointspread, we explain why most people go broke betting on sports. It's because they don't understand the ramifications of the probabilities—not because they can't call winners. They are victims of the fallacy that progressive betting schemes can produce more profit than they deserve.

Over the course of an entire NFL season, we figure to have upwards of 210 opinions against pointspreads and totals, but that does not mean we can view those 210 opinions as though they were ten individual 'blocks' of 21 bets. The 210 opinions can be regarded as a continuum of bets from 1 through 210, or a continuum of 21-block units from 21 through 210. Bets 1 through 21 comprise the first such block, bets 2 through 22 comprise the second block, bets 3 through 23 comprise the third block, etc...Within 210 consecutive bets there are 189 blocks of 21 consecutive bets.

Since there are 189 'blocks' of 21 consecutive bets in a series of 210 bets, it's virtually a sure thing that we will have more than one block wherein our record will be WORSE than 8-13, and it's also pretty much guaranteed that we will have more than one 'block' wherein our record is better than 16-5. Neither of these results means we are performing better or worse than our normal level of handicapping. Such results are caused by wholly normal and natural fluctuations from the mathematical expectation - binomial distribution.

As publishers of Professional Gambler Newsletter, we've found that for new Subscribers, starting off with EITHER a winning streak or a losing streak can be a bad thing. Of those people that subscribe to Professional Gambler at the beginning of a winning streak, some will think we are 'smarter' than we are. They will be tempted to risk too much of their bankroll per bet. They will go on to bust out when we hit a losing streak, which we most certainly will do.

If we start them off with a losing streak, of course, some subscribers will quickly decide we are 'dumber' than we are and ignore our advice.

The trick is to be ready for the ups and downs that are bound to occur simply due to the mathematics of the situation. With upwards of 210 opinions against NFL lines, we do expect an overall win rate in the area of 55%, but we also fully expect a very bumpy ride along the way. Against the NFL, to ensure that you'll still be alive in January, we highly recommend a bet size of no more than 2% of your bankroll. Guarantees come with toaster ovens, not football bets, but we are confident we can offer you a pool of 55% winners from which to make your own choices over the entire NFL season. How many bets we might win over the next ten or twenty tries, however, is hardly more than a guess. Scale your bet sizes so you'll be alive in January. Refrain from 'jiggling' the size of your bets; keep all bets the same size.

NOTE: According to expert researcher Dr. Nigel E. Turner, Ph.D., Scientist, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health ( ntsci@hotmail.com ), incremental betting is one of the telltale signs of someone with a gambling problem.

Did you get that last paragraph? If you absolutely cannot resist betting more on some plays than others, if you cannot resist increasing your bet size to either catch up or to press a winning streak, you may have a gambling problem.

Sports betting on a professional level must be approached as an investment, not a bonanza. Understanding that fact may be the biggest difference between successful bettors and chronic losers. Sports betting is not a means to get rich overnight. Think "stock market," NOT "lottery." Think "investment," NOT "Brink's truck explosion."

We have upwards of 1,000 picks per year in Professional Gambler Newsletter. (That's against pro football, basketball, baseball, hockey, and college football and basketball.) We expect a minimum of 30 units of profit per 1,000 picks (but not every 1,000 picks). Sometimes we generate more profit, sometimes we generate less. Risking 2% of your bankroll per unit, you figure it out: 30 units profit times 2% = 60% profit per year! And, this does not account for the compounding benefit that occurs from our periodic increases in bet size.

If you are not familiar with the vagaries of binomial distribution described above, we recommend that you track us for at least 100 picks, and preferably 200 picks, before subscribing to Professional Gambler Newsletter. It will give you a better sense of the winning and losing streaks we expect along the way. We do have losing streaks and some of them get pretty damned brutal. Check our Track Us page for results to all our picks.