NFL Cover Rate: Is 59% the New Normal?
55% has been the max long-term cover rate (winning percentage) thought possible betting the NFL, but has it changed?
There is nothing unusual about an NFL bettor with a cover rate (against the spread) of 60, 70 or even 80 percent after week 1 or 2. But Week 14? This would seem to indicate something else is going on. Has the 55-percent all-time-high cover rate against NFL been broken?
In a recent NFL season, following Week 14, we posted a total of 139 picks in Professional Gambler Newsletter, our professional handicapping service geared toward professional-level and serious-minded sports bettors. We covered the point spread 82 times. This is a 59-percent cover rate – the highest ever at that point in the season.
PGN was launched in 1991 and originally served subscribers via snail mail once a week. NFL only. We went online in 1997. It is safe to say there is little we have not seen, experienced and endured. However, a 59-percent cover rate following Week 14 is totally novel.
For decades, while touts and "scamdicappers" claimed to win an astronomical percentage of their bets, we stuck to the facts and established that a 55-percent winning percentage against the spread is the most than can be achieved.
Actually, my father and uncle -- the architects of our process -- believed we are able to pick NFL winners against the spread with 60-percent accuracy; however, it ends up being 55 percent due to unforeseen events which occur about half the time.
They explain it like this: all NFL games can be broken down into two categories: (1) the half of all NFL games which end in a predictable manner and (2) the half of all NFL games which end in an unpredictable manner.
The final score sometimes is unpredictable because of unforeseen events, such as: unexpected, adverse weather; an injury; a bad call by the official; a bad bounce; a hail-Mary pass at the last second; cheating; a player (Baker Mayfield) gets mouthy before the game, etc. For the unpredictable half, the law of numbers dictates we are bound to win 50 percent and lose 50 percent. 50 percent of half is 25 percent overall. If the predictable half of NFL games can be accurately handicapped 60 percent of the time (60 percent of 50 percent), this is 30 percent overall. Added together, you have a 55-percent cover rate against the spread.
To shatter the 55-percent ceiling would require either we improve the 60-percent winning percentage among games with no unforeseen events or the 50-percent winning percentage for games that end by virtue of unforeseen events. Is this possible? Perhaps there is room for improvement in the latter group.
There is evidence to suggest as the NFL evolves, it becomes more streamlined and efficient. They become better at producing their product. As we all become higher-tech, we get better and more efficient at many things. It stands to reason that we would see a decrease in the number of games that are inflicted with unforeseen events, therefore decreasing the number of games in the “unforeseen events” group.
Here are some factors to consider:
-- We are better than ever at predicting adverse weather. Also, we have more domed venues than ever before. Weather – whether adverse or not - plays less of a part today in NFL.
--There are fewer injuries today. By virtue of new rules about tackling, concussion protocol, etc., and new technology in helmets, pads, etc., gridiron football is a much safer game today than ever before.\
--As long as there are officials, there will be bad calls, but the NFL has improved leaps and bounds in the officiating department. This is mostly thanks to instant replay technology and the new, more-vigorous standards and training requirements for officials.
-- Games determined by unforeseen events are bad for business for the NFL and there is an ongoing effort to minimize such anomalies
I do not claim to surpass my father and uncle’s cover rate of 55 percent (60% of half actually), but it makes sense that the number of games we can handicap correctly 60 percent of the time would include more games as a percentage of the whole today versus previous decades. This would translate to a higher overall winning percentage. Even small improvements translate to big returns; after all, 52.38 percent is the cover rate at which we play for free, and 54.1 percent is the cover rate of 100-percent ROI.
While a 59-percent cover rate is probably an anomaly and not the new normal, it is entirely possible that we have shattered the 55-percent glass ceiling. As for what that new normal may be, stay tuned.
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